For all the hoopla coming out of Detroit over the last few months about their EV plans, turns out that their grand plan was mostly for show. While the two biggest auto-makers in the US have an EV production plan that spans as far into the future as 2026, their expectation is to build/sell about 320,000 vehicles that year. If that number doesn't sound like a lot to you, it may be because Tesla alone built more EVs than that last year.|
Don't get them wrong, they're still planning on making five million vehicles, but they are the tried and true SUV and pick-up trucks they are known for. With gas prices as low as they have fallen over the last few weeks, that may not difficult at all. Lower gas prices do present a difficulty for Tesla.
With a brand new Gigafactory in Shanghai, one being built in Germany, and yet another one being discussed for "Central USA", Tesla has big plans for the EV future many of us want.
The Model Y was recently launched, which may release development teams to work on the Cybertruck and/or the new Tesla Roadster. Tesla has said that the Model Y alone should exceed demand for all their other vehicles combined, so with the addition of the Cybertruck, they must be aiming for a sup-million production run in 2026.
With so many other automakers bringing EVs, even if they're small production runs, Ford & GM seem to only be aiming for less than 10% of EV market share six years from now. Obviously they stand to lose a lot by cannibalizing their own gas powered vehicle sales, but they may end up losing even more if they don't get in the EV bandwagon. Do you think they're underestimating demand, or that's the right move for them?
JoseQ's Look at this Thing
My favorite analogy for Tesla has always been Apple. Not because Apple became so big, but because they were the underdog with disruptive new products that everyone initially scoffed at, only to have them totally dominate their market. I personally didn't think the iPhone would catch on. A smartphone with no keyboard?? Ridiculous. And look at them now. I think Ford and GM may be having the same reaction in thinking people don't want electric vehicles. Looking at Prius and Leaf sales numbers, one might get that idea. However, it's worth considering Tesla usually sells more cars than they can build, all without any sort of [paid] marketing.
Lastly, the gas price thing may hurt Tesla in the short run, but we've had low gas prices before. Part of their sunken price is this bout of low demand with everyone quarantining. Once we start consuming again, you'll see prices creep back up. Oil companies need to meet their numbers too and these prices will look unsustainable for them. So don't be fooled by that $1/gallon price tag. It won't be here forever.